After a successful debut (winning against Dortmund in Der Klassiker), coach Tuchel quickly suffered his first defeat at Bayern Munich when the Bavarian giants lost to Freiburg in the quarterfinals of the German Cup a few days ago.
Therefore, this immediate rematch is an opportunity for Bayern to seek revenge and, more importantly, to strengthen their position in the race for the championship. It should be noted that the two teams immediately behind them (Dortmund and Union Berlin) will have a direct confrontation in this round, so the result of that match will be beneficial for the defending champions, as long as they can beat Freiburg.
In fact, the recent victory over Bayern once again affirmed the maturity of the Europa-Park home team this season. It is worth remembering that in the Bundesliga, Freiburg is also currently in 4th place on the standings. In the last 7 rounds, coach Streich's team has not lost (won 3) and if they continue to play like this, they can completely make history: the first time qualifying for the Champions League.
At their home ground, Freiburg has only lost 1 match in the 2022/23 Bundesliga season, which was the first match of the season (August 13, 2022) and the away team that beat them was Dortmund. Furthermore, despite the recent shock victory over Bayern, the position of Freiburg has not been raised much as they are still handicapped up to 1 1/4, equivalent to the first leg between the two sides in October last year, when Bayern played at home.
More importantly, next week, the "Bavarian giants" will have to enter the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals against their "super opponent" Bayern Munich, so whatever happens, coach Tuchle will have to carefully consider personnel matters, at least to have a reasonable plan to avoid the risk of injury or reduce the load on playing time for the most important pillars. Meanwhile, Freiburg has been eliminated from the Europa League so they do not need to calculate and just give their best on the pitch.
In addition, Bayern is not outstanding on away matches in the league this season, with points dropped in 6/13 matches played and not all their wins have been by more than one goal (5/7 matches). However, these factors make the 1 1/4 handicap more favorable for the away team. Therefore, I choose Bayern Munich.
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Analysis of the goal ratio Freiburg vs Bayern Munich (3)
The fact that the over/under is set at 3 goals draw (likely to increase to 3 1/4) is quite suitable, considering the 8 most recent clashes between the two sides (excluding friendlies) and the last 10/12 matches of Bayern in all competitions have had multiple goals (at least 3). Freiburg itself has scored and conceded a lot of goals in recent matches. Overall, I predict the score to be 1-3 in favor of Bayern Munich.